The Refinery Notes

Notes from the furnace.

Quarterly teardowns from across the funnels we work on. No client data, just patterns you can test the same week.

Issue 01 · Q4 2026 · FeaturedOut now Why your ROAS is lying to you Platform-reported returns flatter almost every channel. Here's how to find the number that's actually true. Read · 6 min →

MeasurementIssue 01 Why your ROAS is lying to youPlatform-reported returns flatter almost every channel. Find the number that is true. Read the note → PerformanceIssue 01 Cut channels before you add themWhy the fastest route to lower CAC is usually subtraction. Read the note → Product growthIssue 01 Onboarding is your cheapest growth channelEvery user you activate is one you don’t have to buy twice. Read the note → MeasurementIssue 02 Attribution without a data teamA model you can set up in a week and explain in one slide. Coming in Q1 2027 PositioningIssue 02 Positioning for second-time foundersWhat changes when you already know how to build, but not who to sell to. Coming in Q1 2027 Product growthIssue 02 Where AI pays back in growthThree places it earns its keep, and two where it doesn’t yet. Coming in Q1 2027

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One email a quarter. One idea you can test the same week.